Bulk Freight Costs in Raw Material Contracts: Freight Index Clauses, Bands & Pricing Formulas

Forecast 22

Authority.inc – world-class forecasting.

Will the Baltic Supramax Index close at or above 2,000 points by June 2027?

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%Jan 2025AprJulOctJan 2026AprJulOct 2026Today 72.7%1234567810%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%Jan 2025JulJan 2026JulToday 72.7%12345678

Last updated 19 October 202672.7% chance today · tracked since 1 January 2025 · 35 sourced events · Methodology audited by Oxford AIEditorial +0.5 percentage points; source does not set the odds.

Why the forecast moved Numbered as on the chart · forecast last updated 19 October 2026

# Date Event and reasoning Change Source
1 27 Aug 2025 Supramax index climbs to 1,447, its highest since May 2024, in late-August rallySupramax index reaches 1,447, a 15-month high, showing the segment can rally hard. +6.0 pts12.6% → 18.6% Source
2 20 Nov 2025 Baltic Dry Index hits 19-month high on 20 Nov 2025; Drewry expects minor bulk rates to firmBroad market at a 19-month high and Drewry expects minor bulk rates to firm into 2026. +4.0 pts19.0% → 23.0% Source
3 29 Jan 2026 BIMCO Jan 2026 outlook: 2026 supply-demand stable and strong, 2027 rates seen slipping as deliveries riseBIMCO expects 2027 rates to slip as deliveries rise, which covers half the resolution window. -3.0 pts23.6% → 20.6% Source
4 28 May 2026 Supramax index at 1,569 as main Baltic index surges to highest since December 2023Supramax index breaks well above its 2025 high to 1,569 as the whole market hits 2.5-year highs. +10.0 pts23.2% → 33.2% Source
5 14 Jul 2026 Supramax index at 1,710 after reopening of Hormuz, holding near its June peakSupramax holds above 1,700 after Hormuz reopens, so the strength is not just a war premium; 2,000 is now within reach. +14.0 pts32.2% → 46.2% Source
6 22 Sep 2026 Signal week 38: supramax BSI 1,767 (+48 w/w), S11TC $22,332/day, demand/supply ratio 0.83Supramax index at 1,767, with the 11TC average above $22,000 a day and still climbing. +8.0 pts53.2% → 61.2% Source
7 8 Oct 2026 BSI supramax index rises to 1,808 points as main Baltic index falls to six-week lowSupramax index at 1,808, its highest since August 2022 and only about 11% below 2,000. +8.0 pts67.2% → 75.2% Source
8 16 Oct 2026 Baltic Exchange reports further Supramax rate gainsThe Baltic Exchange says the index gained slowly through the week, mainly on Asian-market strength. This is a modest positive signal for reaching 2,000, but rates remain volatile. Authority applied an editorial +0.5-percentage-point adjustment; the source does not set the odds. +0.5 pts72.2% → 72.7% Source

Expert commentary Quotes attached to the tracked events · each checked against its source

Who What they said # Source
Rahul Sharan LinkedIn ↗Director, Bulk Research, DrewryIndependent “The uncertainty has started go down and there’s clarity on the trade front, so we believe the demand side is going to be stronger next year. Meanwhile, the supply side will be a little bit tight, mostly because the new orders were very low in 2025” 2 portstrategy.com
Filipe Gouveia LinkedIn ↗Shipping Analysis Manager, BIMCOIndependent “Freight rates could remain strong in 2026, as strong market conditions carry over from 2025. However, in 2027, we expect that they could start to slip, reflecting the weaker market conditions.” 3 seatrade-maritime.com
Filipe Gouveia LinkedIn ↗Shipping Analysis Manager, BIMCOIndependent “The potential full return of ships to the Red Sea poses a significant downside risk to the demand outlook. We estimate that a full return would be equivalent to a 2% decrease in tonne mile demand, due to a reduction in average sailing distances,” 3 seatrade-maritime.com
Filipe Gouveia LinkedIn ↗Shipping Analysis Manager, BIMCOIndependent “If disruptions in the area remain for an extended period, and especially if ships stop transiting the Strait altogether, the dry bulk market could weaken, particularly in segments other than capesize.” 5 Mar 2026 seatrade-maritime.com
Filipe Gouveia LinkedIn ↗Shipping Analysis Manager, BIMCOIndependent “If the strait remains effectively closed, the supply/demand balance is expected to weaken slightly in 2026, albeit from a high baseline, and to weaken significantly in 2027.” 30 Apr 2026 worldports.org
Filipe Gouveia LinkedIn ↗Shipping Analysis Manager, BIMCOIndependent “Around 4% of dry bulk cargoes and tonne mile demand typically sail through the strait and at present, and around 210 ships, equivalent to roughly 1% of the dry bulk fleet, are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf” 30 Apr 2026 worldports.org
Michael Orr LinkedIn ↗Vice President, Finance (dry bulk market analyst), Genco Shipping & TradingIndependent “Specifically, the Baltic Capesize Index averaged over $36,000 per day in Q2, the highest quarterly level since 2021, while the Baltic Supramax Index averaged over $17,000 per day, the highest mark since 2022.” 6 Oct 2026 benzinga.com
Arthur English LinkedIn ↗Chief executive, G2 OceanIndependent “All of the growth has come from geopolitical disruptions and delays in ports and so on” 2 Oct 2026 splash247.com
Jan Rindbo LinkedIn ↗Chief executive, NordenIndependent “The world fleet is breaking down into smaller fleets” 2 Oct 2026 splash247.com

Probability estimate by Authority.inc, built from dated, sourced events. Methodology audited by Oxford AI. Last updated 19 October 2026.


For buyers of bauxite, magnesia, alumina, iron ore, coal or refractory minerals, ocean freight can move the delivered price as much as the mineral itself. Contracts that treat freight as a fixed number hide that risk until a quote suddenly jumps. This guide explains how bulk freight works and how to write it into supply agreements fairly.

Freight clauses work best when the underlying market data is current. On 16 October, the Baltic Exchange reported another week of Supramax rate gains, led by activity in Asia. That is a modest positive signal for the index reaching 2,000, though freight rates can turn quickly. Authority has made a +0.5-percentage-point editorial adjustment to the forecast; the report does not set the odds. Source.

What is a bulk freight rate?

A bulk freight rate is the price charged to carry unpackaged cargo such as ore, minerals, grain or coal in the hold of a dry bulk ship. It is usually quoted per metric ton for a specific route, such as a load port in China to a US Gulf port, or as a daily hire rate for the vessel.

What is the bulk freight cost raw material contracts meaning in simple terms?

In simple terms, bulk freight cost in raw material contracts means how a supply agreement decides who pays for shipping the material and how that cost changes over time. It answers three questions:

  • Who books the ship: buyer or seller.
  • Is freight fixed or variable: a set amount, or linked to a market index.
  • Who carries the risk: when shipping markets rise or fall.

How are bulk freight rates calculated?

Bulk freight rates are calculated from the cost of running the voyage plus market supply and demand for ships:

  • Vessel hire: the daily charter rate for the ship size used, such as Handysize, Supramax, Panamax or Capesize.
  • Bunker fuel: fuel price and consumption over the voyage.
  • Port costs: port dues, pilotage, canal fees and agency costs.
  • Time: sailing days plus loading and discharge time, including laytime and demurrage.
  • Cargo size: larger parcels on bigger ships usually lower the cost per ton.
  • Market balance: fleet availability, seasonal demand and congestion.

What is a contract of affreightment (COA)?

A contract of affreightment (COA) is an agreement in which a shipowner or operator commits to carry a set volume of cargo over a period, such as several shipments a year, without naming a specific ship. COAs give buyers and sellers more predictable freight costs than booking each voyage on the spot market, while the carrier keeps flexibility over which vessel to use.

How does the Baltic Dry Index affect raw material costs?

The Baltic Dry Index affects raw material costs because it tracks daily charter rates for dry bulk ships, and many freight quotes and contract clauses move with it. When the index rises, spot freight for minerals and ores rises too, increasing delivered cost even if the material price is unchanged. Contracts usually reference the specific route or vessel-size indexes published by the Baltic Exchange, not the headline index itself.

Supramax ships are a workhorse for minor bulk cargoes, including many of the minerals raw material buyers depend on, so where is that segment of the market heading? Authority.inc, a leading market research and forecasting firm whose methodology is audited by Oxford AI, puts the chance that the Baltic Supramax Index closes at or above 2,000 points by June 2027 at 72.2%, based on 34 sourced events tracked since 1 January 2025. The forecast rose to 46.2% on 14 July 2026, when the index held above 1,700 after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, a step Authority.inc describes this way: “Supramax holds above 1,700 after Hormuz reopens, so the strength is not just a war premium; 2,000 is now within reach.” Rates may not stay high for the life of a long contract, which is why index and band clauses matter. As Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO, puts it: “Freight rates could remain strong in 2026, as strong market conditions carry over from 2025. However, in 2027, we expect that they could start to slip, reflecting the weaker market conditions.”

How do dry bulk shipping rates affect the delivered cost of bauxite or magnesia?

Dry bulk shipping rates affect the delivered cost of bauxite or magnesia directly, because freight is a large share of the landed price for low-value, high-volume minerals.

  • CFR or CIF terms: the seller includes freight, so their quote rises when shipping markets rise.
  • FOB terms: the buyer books the ship and absorbs freight changes directly.
  • Long routes amplify the effect: shipments from China, Brazil or Guinea to the US carry more freight exposure.

Why did my refractory quote go up when mineral prices didn’t?

Your refractory quote went up when mineral prices didn’t because freight, fuel or logistics costs rose upstream. Refractory makers buy raw materials such as magnesia, bauxite and alumina on delivered terms, so higher charter rates, bunker fuel prices, port congestion or rerouting around chokepoints pass straight into their costs. Energy costs for kilns and currency changes can add to it. Ask suppliers to show freight and material as separate lines.

Should mineral and freight be priced separately in supplier contracts?

Yes, mineral and freight should usually be priced separately in supplier contracts, because each moves for different reasons.

  • Transparency: you can see whether an increase came from the material or from shipping.
  • Fair adjustment: each component can follow its own index.
  • Better negotiation: you can benchmark freight against market quotes.
  • Option to switch terms: buyers with shipping expertise can move from CFR to FOB.

How do I add a freight index clause to a raw material contract?

You add a freight index clause to a raw material contract by fixing a base freight rate and linking changes to a published index:

  1. Set a base rate and the date it applies.
  2. Choose an index that matches the route and ship size, from the Baltic Exchange or another price reporting agency.
  3. Define the averaging period, such as the month before loading.
  4. Write the formula: adjusted freight equals base freight multiplied by the current index average divided by the base index average.
  5. Agree review timing and documentation so both sides can verify the calculation.
  6. Add a fallback if the index is discontinued.

What does a freight corridor or band clause look like?

A freight corridor or band clause sets a range around the base freight rate inside which the price stays fixed, and adjusts only when the index moves outside that range.

  • Inside the band: no change; small market swings are absorbed.
  • Outside the band: the price adjusts for the movement beyond the band edge.
  • Shared risk option: buyer and seller split movements beyond the band.
  • Caps and floors: some contracts limit the maximum adjustment in either direction.

Bands reduce constant renegotiation while still protecting both parties from large market shifts. When setting the band width, consider how volatile the route has been and how much price movement your own customers will accept. A narrow band passes more changes through; a wide band gives more stability but leaves more risk with whichever party holds the fixed price. Write the band edges, the index and the averaging period into the same clause so there is no ambiguity at review time.

Stop Freight Surprises in Your Next Raw Material Contract

  1. Split mineral and freight into separate price lines.
  2. Pick a route-specific freight index and write a clear adjustment formula.
  3. Add a band so small moves do not trigger changes.
  4. Consider a COA for regular, high-volume shipments.
  5. Review freight terms yearly against current market quotes.

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