Cyber Resilience Act for Product Teams: What US Connected-Device Makers Must Do to Sell in the EU
Forecast 20
Will the EU’s NANDO database list at least 10 notified bodies under the Cyber Resilience Act by June 2027?
Why the forecast moved Numbered as on the chart · forecast last updated 19 October 2026
| # | Date | Event and reasoning | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 Nov 2025 | Commission adopts Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2392 defining important and critical CRA product categoriesAdopted category list fixes the Class II and critical products that must use notified bodies, creating firm demand for TIC firms. | +1.6 pts31.8% → 33.4% | Source |
| 2 | 29 Dec 2025 | Dutch CRA implementation bill (Kamerstuk 36875 nr. 2) designates minister as notifying authorityDutch bill names a notifying authority in the country where the first CRA-accredited labs sit. | +1.2 pts33.4% → 34.6% | Source |
| 3 | 20 Mar 2026 | European Accreditation says sufficient CRA notified bodies are expected operational before December 2026European Accreditation publicly expects sufficient CRA notified bodies before Dec 2026, an informed signal from the accreditation network. | +2.0 pts34.6% → 36.6% | Source |
| 4 | 29 Apr 2026 | German cabinet adopts CRA implementing bill naming BSI notifying authority for conformity assessment bodiesGermany, the biggest TIC market, moves a bill making BSI the notifying authority. | +1.6 pts38.2% → 39.8% | Source |
| 5 | 11 Jun 2026 | CRA Chapter IV (notified-body rules) starts to apply on 11 June 2026; no bodies designated yetChapter IV applied with zero bodies designated: the machinery was not ready on day one, cutting the runway to the deadline. | -3.0 pts40.6% → 37.6% | Source |
| 6 | 1 Jul 2026 | Benchmark: only Finland and Slovakia have adopted CRA implementing laws; six more countries have draftsOnly two of 27 states had adopted CRA laws by July 2026; most bodies cannot be notified until their state names a notifying authority. | -3.0 pts37.2% → 34.2% | Source |
| 7 | 14 Sep 2026 | TrustCB (NMi Group) gets RvA accreditation for CRA Module B across all four product categoriesSecond accredited body (TrustCB) covering all four CRA categories: accreditations are now arriving, and the Dutch pipeline has two bodies. | +4.0 pts39.0% → 43.0% | Source |
| 8 | 11 Oct 2026 | France formally designates its CRA notifying authorityA French decree names ANSSI as the authority for notifying and overseeing CRA assessment bodies. It opens another national pipeline but does not add a notified body to NANDO. Authority applies an editorial +0.5-point adjustment. | +0.5 pts44.0% → 44.5% | Source |
Expert commentary Quotes attached to the tracked events · each checked against its source
| Who | What they said | # | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Plattner LinkedIn ↗President, Federal Office for Information Security (BSI)Company | “Wir müssen es Herstellenden und Dienstleistenden einfach machen, Produkte mit einer hohen Cybersicherheit auf den Markt zu bringen. Wir freuen uns, dass wir den Prozess mit dieser Kooperation auf ein sicheres Fundament stellen und auch für die zukünftigen Herausforderungen gut aufgestellt sind” | 25 Sep 2026 | bsi.bund.de |
Probability estimate by Authority.inc, built from dated, sourced events. Methodology audited by Oxford AI. Last updated 19 October 2026.
For US product teams, the EU rule also depends on how national authorities implement it. On 11 October, France published a decree naming ANSSI as its Cyber Resilience Act notifying authority. That may help more assessment bodies enter the EU process, but it does not itself add any body to NANDO. Authority has made a +0.5-percentage-point editorial adjustment; the source does not set the odds. Source: https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/article_jo/JORFARTI000054970348
What is the Cyber Resilience Act?
The Cyber Resilience Act is an EU regulation (Regulation (EU) 2024/2847) that sets mandatory cybersecurity requirements for “products with digital elements”: hardware and software that connect directly or indirectly to a device or network. It entered into force in December 2024 and applies across all EU member states without national transposition.
It requires manufacturers to:
- Design products to be secure by default, with no known exploitable vulnerabilities at release.
- Handle and fix vulnerabilities throughout a defined support period.
- Report actively exploited vulnerabilities and severe incidents to EU authorities.
- Provide security documentation, an SBOM and clear user information.
- Complete a conformity assessment and affix the CE mark.
Does the Cyber Resilience Act apply to US companies?
Yes, the Cyber Resilience Act applies to US companies that place products with digital elements on the EU market, whether they sell directly, through distributors or through online marketplaces. Where the company is based does not matter; where the product is sold does.
- Manufacturers carry most obligations, even if outside the EU.
- Importers and distributors in the EU must check that products are compliant before selling them, so EU partners will ask US manufacturers for proof.
- An authorized representative in the EU can be appointed to handle certain tasks on the manufacturer’s behalf.
Penalties for breaching essential requirements can reach large fixed amounts or a percentage of worldwide annual turnover, and non-compliant products can be pulled from the market.
What does the Cyber Resilience Act mean for product teams?
What the Cyber Resilience Act means for product teams is that security becomes a documented release requirement with legal deadlines, not a best-effort goal.
- Roadmaps must include a defined security support period for every product.
- Requirements must cover the CRA’s essential cybersecurity requirements, such as secure defaults, access control, data protection and minimal attack surface.
- Release gates must confirm no known exploitable vulnerabilities and a current SBOM.
- Post-launch work includes vulnerability handling, security updates and reporting.
- Documentation becomes a product deliverable: risk assessment, technical file and user instructions.
Which teams does the Cyber Resilience Act affect?
The Cyber Resilience Act affects nearly every team that touches a product’s lifecycle:
- Product management: support periods, risk-based requirements and EU market decisions.
- Engineering: secure design, dependency management and update mechanisms.
- Security and PSIRT: vulnerability intake, coordinated disclosure and reporting deadlines.
- DevOps and release: SBOM generation, build integrity and signed updates.
- Legal and compliance: conformity assessment, the EU declaration of conformity and CE marking.
- Customer support: communicating security updates and end-of-support dates.
- Procurement: checking that third-party components and suppliers support your obligations.
Does the CRA apply to SaaS or open-source software?
The CRA generally does not apply to pure SaaS, and it applies to open-source software only when it is supplied in a commercial activity.
SaaS
- Standalone cloud services are mostly covered by the NIS2 Directive, not the CRA.
- The CRA does cover remote data processing that is essential to a product’s function, such as the cloud backend a smart device needs to work.
Open source
- Non-commercial open source developed and shared freely is outside scope.
- Commercial products that include open source are in scope; the manufacturer is responsible for the components it ships.
- Open-source software stewards, such as foundations that support projects used commercially, have a lighter set of obligations.
What is the CRA compliance timeline?
The CRA compliance timeline is phased, so some obligations already apply while others are still ahead:
- December 2024: the regulation entered into force.
- June 2026: rules for conformity assessment bodies (notified bodies) began to apply.
- September 2026: vulnerability and incident reporting obligations began to apply, including for products already on the market.
- December 2027: all remaining obligations apply, including the essential requirements, conformity assessment and CE marking.
Products placed on the EU market from December 2027 must fully comply, so design work for products launching then is happening now.
How does the CRA’s 24-hour vulnerability reporting rule work?
The CRA’s 24-hour vulnerability reporting rule requires manufacturers to send an early warning within 24 hours of becoming aware of an actively exploited vulnerability or a severe incident affecting their product. Reports go through ENISA’s single reporting platform to the relevant national CSIRT.
The reporting sequence:
- Early warning within 24 hours: basic facts, and which EU member states the product is sold in.
- Notification within 72 hours: more detail on the vulnerability or incident, its nature and any mitigations.
- Final report: within 14 days of a fix being available for an exploited vulnerability, or within one month for a severe incident, covering root cause and corrective measures.
- User notification: inform affected users and, where needed, explain how to mitigate.
To meet a 24-hour clock, product teams need an always-staffed intake process, clear on-call ownership and pre-approved report templates.
What are the CRA’s SBOM requirements?
The CRA’s SBOM requirements oblige manufacturers to create a software bill of materials in a commonly used, machine-readable format, covering at least the product’s top-level dependencies.
- Format: standard formats such as SPDX or CycloneDX are the practical choices.
- Location: the SBOM is part of the technical documentation provided to market surveillance authorities on request; the CRA does not require it to be published.
- Purpose: it lets you find affected products quickly when a vulnerability appears in a component.
- Maintenance: regenerate it with every release so it matches the shipped build.
Generating SBOMs automatically in CI is far easier than reconstructing them later.
How long must we provide security updates under the CRA?
Under the CRA, you must provide security updates for a support period that reflects how long the product is expected to be used, and in principle for at least five years. A shorter period is allowed only when the product’s expected use time is genuinely shorter.
- State the end date clearly at the time of purchase, at least to the month and year.
- Ship updates separately from feature updates where technically possible.
- Provide updates free of charge, with automatic updates enabled by default where appropriate and an opt-out for users.
- Keep updates available for a period after release, even after support ends.
What is a CRA conformity assessment and CE marking?
A CRA conformity assessment is the process of showing that a product meets the CRA’s essential cybersecurity requirements, and CE marking is the visible sign that it has passed. The route depends on the product’s category:
- Default products: most products, assessed by the manufacturer through internal control (self-assessment).
- Important products, Class I: such as password managers, VPNs, routers and smart home security devices; self-assessment is allowed only if harmonized standards are fully applied, otherwise a notified body is involved.
- Important products, Class II: such as firewalls, hypervisors and tamper-resistant microprocessors; third-party assessment by a notified body is required.
- Critical products: such as smart meter gateways and smartcards may require European cybersecurity certification.
After assessment, the manufacturer signs an EU declaration of conformity and affixes the CE mark. Many connected devices already carry CE marking for radio or electrical safety rules; the CRA adds cybersecurity to that process.
For products that need a notified body, capacity is the open question. Authority.inc, a leading market research and forecasting firm whose methodology is audited by Oxford AI, puts the chance that the EU’s NANDO database lists at least 10 notified bodies under the Cyber Resilience Act by June 2027 at 44.0%, based on 32 sourced events tracked since 10 December 2024. The forecast fell to 37.6% on 11 June 2026, when the CRA’s notified-body rules began to apply with no bodies designated, a step Authority.inc describes this way: “Chapter IV applied with zero bodies designated: the machinery was not ready on day one, cutting the runway to the deadline.” Accreditations have since started to arrive, and the forecast rose to 43.0% on 14 September 2026, when Authority.inc noted: “Second accredited body (TrustCB) covering all four CRA categories: accreditations are now arriving, and the Dutch pipeline has two bodies.”
How does the CRA change secure development for engineering teams?
The CRA changes secure development for engineering teams by turning practices many teams treat as optional into documented obligations.
- Threat modeling and risk assessment for every product, kept in the technical file.
- Secure by default: no default passwords, minimal open ports and secure configuration out of the box.
- Dependency management: tracking, updating and assessing third-party and open-source components.
- Vulnerability handling: a published coordinated vulnerability disclosure policy and contact point.
- Secure updates: signed, integrity-checked update delivery.
- Logging and data protection: recording security-relevant events and protecting stored and transmitted data.
- Evidence: test results, scans and reviews kept as proof.
Aligning with existing frameworks such as the NIST Secure Software Development Framework (SSDF) and IEC 62443 gives US teams a strong head start, since they cover much of the same ground.
Get Your Product CRA-Ready Before December 2027
Work through these steps with product, engineering and security together:
- Inventory every product sold in the EU and classify it as default, important or critical.
- Stand up 24-hour reporting now, since that obligation already applies.
- Automate SBOM generation in your build pipeline for every release.
- Set and publish support periods for each product line.
- Run a gap assessment against the CRA essential requirements, using SSDF or IEC 62443 work you already have.
- Plan your conformity route and book notified body capacity early if your products need it.